AGP Executive Report

Election race: A KAN poll puts Gadi Eisenkot ahead of Benjamin Netanyahu as preferred prime minister, 43% to 38%, with Yashar projected to win 22 Knesset seats against Likud’s 20. Netanyahu’s bloc remains short of a majority at 53 seats; Arab parties’ projected 13 seats could prove pivotal. Security: Netanyahu held consultations after Donald Trump signaled possible renewed strikes on Iran. U.S.-Israeli talks also covered Houthi targets in Yemen, with IDF chief Eyal Zamir warning escalation could delay Israel’s Oct. 27 election. Gaza accountability: Netanyahu is seeking criminal probes of Israeli soldiers who spoke anonymously in the documentary NAZA, which examines civilian deaths in Gaza and military targeting systems. Palestinian politics: Mahmoud Abbas postponed Palestinian presidential and legislative elections to September 2027, citing Israeli restrictions; France urged the Palestinian leadership to reverse the delay. Election debate: Representatives of eight of nine Israeli parties rejected Palestinian statehood at a recent debate.

Palestinian Politics: Mahmoud Abbas has postponed Palestinian legislative and presidential elections until September 2027, extending a two-decade wait for voters. France urged him to reverse the decision; Hamas endorsed the delay, while Israel rejected the PA’s claim that Israeli restrictions made voting impossible. Israel’s Election: As the October 27 vote approaches, renewed allegations over the government’s handling of warnings before October 7 have sharpened calls for an independent inquiry. Military officials also caution that a pre-election strike on Iran could look politically motivated. Gaza and Coalition Scrutiny: The IDF says it struck Hamas weapons depots and launch sites as it pushes its Yellow Line deeper into Gaza. Separately, an Otzma Yehudit lawmaker is under investigation over an alleged clash with police involving extremist settlers. Diplomacy: Colombia is set to open an embassy in Jerusalem, reversing a freeze in ties under its previous government.

Election Race: With Israel’s October 27 vote approaching, the Arab-majority Joint List says it will back any government that replaces Benjamin Netanyahu. Polls suggest neither major bloc is near a parliamentary majority, making Arab parties potential kingmakers; Naftali Bennett’s alliance with Yair Lapid is also seeking to lead the opposition. Palestinian Politics: Mahmoud Abbas postponed legislative and presidential elections until September 11, 2027, citing security conditions and Israeli restrictions. The delay leaves the Palestinian Authority’s leadership without an electoral challenge for now. West Bank Tensions: Settlers have reportedly ordered 47 Palestinian families in Ras al-Ahmar to leave after weeks of military road closures, deepening fears of forced displacement. Gaza and Security: Palestinian sources say Israeli fire killed seven people in Gaza on Saturday, as Israel’s military investigates a possible intrusion in the north. A UN statement also reported 280 Israeli incursions into southern Syria in September. US-Israel Relations: The Trump administration imposed sanctions on the International Criminal Court, drawing international criticism. Separately, a New York Times report says a senior aide at the US Embassy in Jerusalem suppressed reporting critical of Israeli settlement policy.

Palestinian Elections: Mahmoud Abbas postponed parliamentary elections and set presidential and legislative votes for September 11, 2027, citing Israeli restrictions and conditions that he says prevent a fair poll. The delay extends a two-decade absence of national elections and risks further undermining the Palestinian Authority’s credibility. Iran and Israel’s Vote: Reports say Washington pressed Israel to strike Iran before US midterms, then backed off; Netanyahu’s position remains unclear. A separate intelligence assessment says Iran retained missile and drone production capacity despite months of US-Israeli strikes. October 7 Accountability: With Israel’s election approaching, new allegations say Netanyahu received a warning from the UAE about a possible major Hamas attack 10 days before October 7 and did not pass it to security chiefs. Gaza and West Bank: Israeli strikes killed Palestinians in Gaza a year into the ceasefire, while a journalist was injured during a raid near Ramallah. ICC Dispute: The US imposed sweeping sanctions on the International Criminal Court, citing its actions involving Americans and Israelis; Netanyahu welcomed the move, while UN officials and allies condemned it.

ICC Showdown: Washington imposed sweeping sanctions on the International Criminal Court, threatening its access to U.S. financial and technology services; Britain, Canada and six other allies backed the court. Israel condemned Nobel laureate Navi Pillay, whose U.N. commission accused Israel of genocide in Gaza. Election Pressure: Israeli polls put the coalition and opposition blocs level at 52 seats each, while a Hebrew University study found only a third of Israelis want Benjamin Netanyahu to remain in office. The campaign is clouded by questions over October 7 failures and the risk that renewed conflict with Iran could delay the vote. Palestinian Politics: The Palestinian Authority plans to postpone November’s legislative election, citing worsening security, political and economic conditions. Israel’s foreign minister accused Mahmoud Abbas of misleading the international community. Diplomatic Tensions: Israel has downgraded Britain’s Jerusalem consulate after London imposed sanctions on West Bank settlements; Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar warned countries taking hostile measures would face consequences. Regional Security: Israeli strikes killed at least eight people in Gaza, according to Palestinian medical and civil-defense sources, while an Israeli drone strike wounded six near Lebanon’s Syrian border.

Election Watch: A new poll puts Israel’s coalition and opposition blocs tied at 52 seats each, with Likud gaining ground and Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar narrowly ahead. October 7 remains central to Benjamin Netanyahu’s campaign, as families and critics renew calls for an inquiry into the failures behind the attacks. Iran Tensions: IDF chief Eyal Zamir reportedly warned that renewed U.S. strikes on Iran could prompt Tehran to retaliate and delay Israel’s October 27 election. Donald Trump says Washington will not attack before the November midterms, though reports say military preparations continue. Diplomatic Row: Israel has downgraded Britain’s East Jerusalem consulate after London imposed sanctions over West Bank settlements; Britain says its mission will stay open to provide services. Nobel Dispute: Israel condemned Navi Pillay’s Nobel Peace Prize, citing her commission’s finding that Israel committed genocide in Gaza—a charge Israel rejects. Palestinian Politics: The Palestinian Authority has pushed back planned legislative elections, citing security, economic and logistical obstacles.

Election and Iran: IDF Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir warned that renewed fighting with Iran in the coming weeks could delay Israel’s Oct. 27 election. The Pentagon is preparing options, but President Trump says the US will not strike before its Nov. 3 midterms. Oct. 7 Accountability: Former military secretary Avi Gil alleged that records of Netanyahu’s schedule on Oct. 7 were changed; Likud accused Gil of failing to alert the prime minister to warning signs. Netanyahu’s handling of the attack is emerging as a key election issue. UK Ties: Israel and Britain reached a compromise over the East Jerusalem consulate: most UK diplomats will leave, but a smaller mission will remain after a dispute over British sanctions on West Bank settlements. Palestinian Vote: Factions are moving to postpone the planned Nov. 28 legislative election, which would be the first in 20 years, citing logistical obstacles and internal divisions.

Election and October 7: As Israel heads toward its October 27 vote, the attack’s third anniversary has sharpened demands for a state inquiry into security failures and kept Netanyahu’s record at the center of the campaign. Candidates include survivors and relatives of victims. UK-Israel Rift: The two governments reached a compromise over Britain’s East Jerusalem consulate: it will remain open as a smaller UK Mission, with seven diplomats allowed to stay while 20, including the consul general, leave. The dispute followed UK sanctions on West Bank settlement trade. Palestinian Politics: Palestinian factions are discussing postponing planned legislative elections, while Israel has blocked Palestinian election officials from entering Gaza and East Jerusalem. Iran Tensions: Reports say the Pentagon has told CENTCOM to prepare for possible renewed strikes on Iran, but Trump has made no decision and no timetable is set.

October 7 Reckoning: Israelis marked the third anniversary of the Hamas attack with memorials across the country, including a Tel Aviv ceremony attended by tens of thousands. At the Nova festival site, President Isaac Herzog called for international cooperation to disarm Hamas. Election Pressure: Families of victims renewed demands for a state inquiry into security failures and whether officials received advance warnings, putting accountability at the center of the campaign ahead of the October 27 vote. Netanyahu has denied receiving warnings; his Likud party says security officials believed Hamas was deterred. Gaza and Security: Palestinian officials reported deaths in Israeli strikes despite the ceasefire, including a Civil Defence medic near Kamal Adwan Hospital. Israel said two Hamas members were killed near the facility; Hamas rejected Israel’s claims of military activity there. Coalition Tensions: Shas has threatened to block any coalition without guarantees on the status of yeshiva students, keeping the military draft dispute in play as election season intensifies.

Election Stakes: Israel’s Oct. 27 vote is increasingly framed around the failures of October 7. Memorial-day protests demanded a state inquiry, while Netanyahu warned Hamas could try to influence the election with attacks. Security chiefs called the campaign period sensitive and coordinated measures to protect the vote. Political Fault Lines: Tensions over Haredi military exemptions flared after a crowd disrupted the arrest of a draft evader, renewing criticism of the government’s failure to pass a draft law. Palestinian Politics: Israel blocked Palestinian election officials from entering Gaza and East Jerusalem, adding to uncertainty over Palestinian Authority voting. West Bank Tensions: A Palestinian man was killed and nine injured during a settler clash and subsequent Israeli intervention near Nablus, amid rising violence in the occupied territory.

UEFA Probe: UEFA opened an ethics investigation into alleged misconduct around the Ireland–Israel Nations League match after reports of an incident in the tunnel at halftime, with Ireland claiming an Israeli player spat at staff while Israel players wore black armbands for Oct. 7 victims. Oct. 7 Diplomacy & Memory: Germany’s Chancellor Friedrich Merz reaffirmed Berlin’s firm support for Israel on the third anniversary of Hamas’ Oct. 7 attacks, warning against rising antisemitism. Gaza Reality vs Politics: A Gaza reporter, Motaz Azaiza, said he withheld footage of Israeli hostages being abused to avoid endangering people shown in the clips. West Bank Escalation: Defense Minister Israel Katz threatened a “full-scale offensive” against the Palestinian Authority if Palestinian forces target Israeli troops or settlers, as demolitions and settler violence continue. Palestinian Elections Blocked: Israel denied Palestinian Central Elections Commission teams entry to Gaza and East Jerusalem, raising fears the Nov. 28 vote could be delayed again. Israel Election Logistics: Likud withdrew a petition against groups helping Israelis abroad vote, with tens of thousands expected to return for the 2026 election. Security & Controversy: Israel considered shooting down a flydubai passenger plane during a hijacking scare, but fighters were recalled after the aircraft changed course toward Saudi Arabia. International Pressure: The US threatened Britain with tariffs over UK sanctions tied to Israel settlement boycotts. Domestic Draft Tensions: Israel Police criticized Military Police handling of a Modi’in draft-dodger arrest after protesters gathered, spotlighting friction between police and the IDF.

UEFA Discipline: UEFA opened an investigation into alleged misconduct around the tunnel during the Ireland-Israel Nations League match in Serbia after reports of a halftime spitting incident, with both teams wearing black armbands and no handshakes in protest. Diplomatic Retaliation: The UK is reportedly threatening to expel up to 27 Israeli diplomats if Israel closes the UK consulate in East Jerusalem, escalating a dispute over UK sanctions and settlement-related trade. Election Security: Defense Minister Israel Katz ordered the IDF on heightened alert ahead of the Oct. 7 anniversary, warning Hamas could attack Israeli forces and that Israel would respond “beyond all proportion,” while Netanyahu said Hamas may try to influence the election. Gaza and West Bank: Israeli strikes in Gaza City and Khan Yunis killed at least one Palestinian and injured others amid continued demolitions; in parallel, Israel carried out raids and attacks across the West Bank. Regional Fronts: Israel carried out fresh attacks in southern Lebanon, while separate reporting says Israel is preparing for possible new military action against Iran. PA Scenario: Katz also floated a scenario for possible PA/Tanzim attacks on Israel, despite IDF sources saying there’s no concrete intelligence for such a move.

Iran-Iraq/Regional Security: Israel is preparing for possible new military action against Iran, either with the US or independently, as Washington readies extra forces and aircraft in the region. Aviation & Security: The flydubai FZ1073 attempted hijacking case keeps expanding: Israel says the Omani co-pilot planned to crash into Ben Gurion, while the US says it has no conclusive proof of Iranian involvement; UAE authorities completed the return of nearly 7,500 stranded passengers. Gaza & Hostage Politics: The UN chief called for a permanent Gaza ceasefire ahead of the Oct. 7 anniversary, while Israel’s Defense Minister ordered the hunt to “kill them all” among remaining Oct. 7 attackers. West Bank & Jerusalem: Israeli forces raided Qalqilyah; dozens of settlers stormed Al-Aqsa under police protection, with Palestinians warning the status quo is being reshaped. Diplomacy: Britain is threatening to expel 27 Israeli diplomats over the planned closure of its East Jerusalem consulate. Domestic Politics: A CIA report warns Israel could face internal collapse or civil conflict ahead of the Oct. 27 election, highlighting ultra-Orthodox draft exemptions as a flashpoint.

Oct. 7 Commemoration: Netanyahu told Israelis at the Mount Herzl memorial that “there will be no Hamas rule in Gaza,” vowing to keep targeting those behind the attack and hostages, as flags were lowered and Herzog urged unity despite political division. Gaza War Policy: Israel’s stated post-war governance plans remain unresolved, with the anniversary marking another round of pressure on how Gaza will be run. West Bank Pressure: A commission report says “Israeli” forces and settlers carried out nearly 63,000 attacks on Palestinians since Oct. 7, alongside demolitions and heavy damage to farmland and olive trees. West Bank Raids: Israeli forces demolished a Birzeit University memorial and arrested 12 Palestinians in multiple raids. Northern Front: Israel continued shelling in southern Lebanon, while Turkey condemned renewed Israeli work on the “Sufa 53” line in Quneitra as a breach of the 1974 disengagement deal. FlyDubai Probe: Investigators expanded the thwarted cockpit attack probe, with reports saying the Omani co-pilot planned to crash into Ben Gurion or a Tel Aviv target, sharpening scrutiny of aviation vetting and coordination. UK Politics Spillover: The UK Green Party’s vote defining Zionism as racism triggered Israel’s ban of leader Zack Polanski, adding to the political fallout around Israel-linked events. Cyber Security: Microsoft’s report ranks Israel second globally for cyberattack targeting, citing a surge in ransomware and Iranian-linked campaigns. Israel-Government & Economy: The Israel Securities Authority named Adv. Sara Kandler as CEO, replacing Oded Spirer. International Diplomacy: Jordan-Turkey talks focused on regional security and Israel-linked war crimes concerns raised by King Abdullah at the UN.

IDF overhaul after Oct. 7: Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir says the IDF will expand readiness for surprise, multi-front war by shifting from assessing enemies’ intentions to preparing for what they can do, including more forces on alert, stronger border defense, wider commanders’ freedom, and an intelligence/warning overhaul. Security & aviation: Netanyahu ordered a thorough review of foreign civil aviation security after a Flydubai co-pilot allegedly tried to crash an Israel-bound plane following a cockpit stabbing; Israel’s transport minister pushed responsibility onto intelligence agencies, while reports add new scrutiny of the attacker’s links abroad. Gaza strike & Oct. 7 link: Israel says it killed Hamas figure Saqr Nabil Mousa Al-Qaisi in Khan Younis, alleging he helped plan attacks and worked through a Turkish NGO. Syria escalation: Syria condemned Israel’s “Sufa 53” excavation/fortification work near Quneitra as a breach of the 1974 disengagement line; separately, IDF reported killing a suspected infiltrator near its southern Syria post. Politics at home: A KAN poll puts Netanyahu’s coalition and the opposition change bloc neck-and-neck (51 vs 52 seats), with no side able to govern alone ahead of Oct. 27 elections. UK political fallout: Israel barred UK Green Party leader Zack Polanski after the party adopted a “Zionism is racism” policy, drawing sharp backlash. Regional pressure: Iran reiterated there is “no military solution” to its conflict with the US as diplomacy stalls.

Aviation Security Fallout: Israel’s Transport Ministry admitted it failed to vet foreign flight crews, saying it relies on airlines—after the Sept. 30 Flydubai cockpit attack attempt that led to a diversion to Saudi Arabia and renewed scrutiny of screening standards. International Probes: Australia launched a counterterrorism investigation into the Omani co-pilot accused of the attack, focusing on possible radicalization during his student years; UAE-led inquiries continue as Israel weighs whether he acted alone. Gaza Targeting & Toll: The IDF confirmed an airstrike targeting Hamas deputy political bureau chief Ali Ahmed Al-Amoudi, while Gaza strikes over the weekend killed at least six Palestinians, including women and a mother-daughter pair, as Israel ordered closure of crossings on the Oct. 7 anniversary. Regional Pressure: Iran’s foreign minister rejected any “military solution” to the US conflict, insisting only negotiations can end it, as Israel warns of heightened risks to US bases in Europe. Elections & Security: Israel’s Supreme Court is set to hear whether Shin Bet must provide direct protection to Yair Golan during the final weeks of the campaign. Union & Boycott Politics: The UK Royal College of Nursing ended a sponsorship with Teva UK over alleged military-linked ethical concerns, adding to pressure on Israeli-linked firms. Somalia Stance: Somalia’s president reiterated it will not accept any Israeli military presence, including claims about Berbera.